Gender Gap Updates

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Gender Gap Persists in the 2004 Election
Women 7 Points Less Likely than Men to Support Bush; But % of Women's Votes for Kerry Lower than for Gore in 2000

November 5 , 2004—The gender gap remained a notable factor in the 2004 presidential election, according to an analysis of exit poll data by the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Defined as the difference between the proportion of women and the proportion of men voting for the winning candidate, the gender gap was 7 percentage points in 2004, with 48% of women versus 55% of men voting to re-elect President Bush.

The gender gap this year is consistent with other presidential elections, with an average gender gap of 7.7 percentage points from 1980 to 2000. However, the 2004 gender gap is smaller than the 10-point gap in the 2000 election, when 43% of women versus 53% of men voted for George W. Bush.

Despite the gender gap, President Bush succeeded in increasing his overall share of the women's vote this year. Senator John Kerry did win a slight majority of women's votes (51%), but he lost ground from 2000, when 54% of women voted for Al Gore. President Bush's ability to increase his share of the women's vote to 48% this year (up from 43% in 2000) is a major reason why he took the popular vote this time around.

Further, John Kerry did not do as well with working women or white women as Al Gore did in 2000. Kerry won a smaller majority of employed women this year than Gore won in 2000 (51% of employed women voted for Kerry vs. 58% who voted for Gore). Similarly, Kerry won the support of 44% of white women in 2004, compared with the 48% of white women who voted for Gore in 2000.

Contrary to some media reports, the gender gap was apparent across demographic groups this year, even among traditional Republican-leaning supporters. For example, a gender gap was apparent among white voters. Fewer white women than white men voted for Bush (55% vs. 62%). Similarly, non-white women voted for Bush at lower rates than non-white men (24% vs. 30%).

Data cited in this release are from Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International Exit Polls. More information on women's voting and gender gap trends is available on the Center for American Women and Politics Web site at www.cawp.rutgers.edu.

Harvard Study Finds Gender Gap Among Students
Record Number of College Students Plan to Vote this Year

October 22, 2004—A new national poll by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics finds exceptionally high student interest in the 2004 presidential campaign. The findings also suggests that the gender gap will play a significant role among college-age voters:

• The study found turnout among college students is expected to rise dramatically. Nearly 72% of college students report that they are "certain" they are registered to vote and "definitely" plan on voting this November.

• There is an 11-point gender gap among student voters in their presidential preferences, with support from female students giving Senator John Kerry a lead over President Bush among students overall. Some 58% of female students favor Kerry versus 47% of male students; whereas 34% of female students prefer Bush versus 46% of male students.

More details on the study can be found on the Institute of Politics Web site.

As Voters Turn to Economic Issues, Women More Pessimistic About the Economy
Women Still Majority of Swing and Undecided Voters, Nationwide and in Key States

October 5, 2004—Recent polls show that women are more pessimistic about the state of the economy than men are.

Recent polls also show why both presidential campaigns are intensifying outreach to women voters this year: women still remain a majority of the undecided and swing voters nationwide. Polling shows that women are up to 63% of the voters who remain undecided in the election:

This gender gap among undecided voters extends into key battleground states:

For those voters who have expressed a presidential preference at this point in the campaign, recent nationwide and state polls confirm that the gender gap persists:

Women Voters Majority of Undecided Voters
Gender Gap Persists in Nationwide and Battleground Polls; Women No More Likely to be Security Minded, Data Show

September 28, 2004—As the presidential candidates prepare to reach out to undecided voters on foreign policy issues with their first presidential debate, they would do well to target their messages to women. A review of recent national and state polls shows that undecided voters are much more likely to be women than men at this point in the presidential campaign. Polls also show that despite recent media attention to security as a growing concern for women, the so-called "security moms" are no more likely than other voters to name terrorism or Iraq as their top voting issue.

Recent polls show why both presidential campaigns are intensifying outreach to women voters this year—women remain a majority of the undecided and swing voters nationwide:

This gender gap among undecided voters extends into key battleground states:

For those voters who have expressed a presidential preference at this point in the campaign, recent nationwide and state polls confirm that the gender gap persists:

The Sept. 23-26 Washington Post poll also found that the so-called "security moms," defined as married women with children, are no more likely than other voters to name terrorism or Iraq as their top issue in the presidential preferences. About one in four married men and married women rated the war on terrorism as their top voting concern, according to the Post poll.

New Poll Shows 17 Point Gender Gap in Presidential Election
Women Swing Voters Remain Uncommitted

August 13, 2004—A new EMILY's List poll finds a 17-point gender gap between men and women voters' presidential preferences, with women favoring John Kerry and men supporting George W. Bush.

The poll also finds that women "swing" voters—who are 32% of all women voters and 17% of the electorate—favor George Bush over John Kerry. However, these voters are more likely to say their support is "less than definite."

These women swing voters are "acutely pessimistic in their evaluations of how the country is faring on a variety of measures that impinge on the upcoming campaigns, including overall satisfaction with how things are going in the country, current economic trends, and U.S. involvement in Iraq," according to an EMILY's List report on the survey findings. The findings show that the most important issues to women swing voters are health care, education and the economy.

The poll by Garin-Hart-Yang Strategic Research was conducted June 28 to July 7, 2004, among 1,529 registered voters, including an oversample of "swing" women voters. More details are on the EMILY's List Web site.

Women are Key Undecided Voters
Women Outnumber Men Among Undecideds

July 23, 2004—More women than men are undecided about who they will vote for in the presidential election, a review of recent national and state polls shows:

The gender gap among undecided voters extends into key battleground states:

The findings on undecided voters are based on gender data from recent polls provided by the polling firms listed above. The review was coordinated by the Communications Consortium Media Center in Washington, DC.